Robert L. Hawkins
71 yrs · M · Devoted Medicare Adv · attributed since Jan 2026 · last visit 05/14
Schizoaffective disorder
CHF
T2DM
Deteriorating · 14d
Why Caliber flagged Robert
caliber-decomp-v3 · confidence 0.78Robert's signals over the last 14 days resemble the 21-day window before his 2024 inpatient psychiatric admission — but earlier in the trajectory, which is when intervention typically works.
Mood / sleep
PHQ-9 8 → 14 across two weekly SMS check-ins. Items 3 (sleep) and 5 (appetite) drove most of the change.
Voice signals
05/18 voice check-in: response latency +1.4s vs. baseline; new mention of "neighbors hearing me." Flagged for clinical review.
Adherence
Clozapine refilled 4 days late on 05/10. This is the second gap in 60 days.
CHF
Home scale +3 lb in 5 days. Below alert threshold but contributing to composite.
How the model reached this
- Pulled 14d window across 8 signal streams (PHQ-9, GAD-7, voice, SMS sentiment, pharmacy, scale, ED feed, sleep).
- Encoded as trajectory vector; nearest-neighbor match against 142 prior members with similar baseline.
- 41% of matches progressed to inpatient within 21 days (95% CI 33–49%).
- Suppressed for known false-positive pattern: med titration window (does not apply here).
Composite risk · 90d
+34% over last 30d
Measures
| PHQ-9 | 14 ↑ |
| GAD-7 | 11 ↑ |
| Sleep | 4.8h ↓ |
| Weight | 201 ↑ |
Your benchmark
Your panel's deterioration → admission rate is 18% vs. network 31%.